Two teams came into this match without an RPL win in five games. They left with both streaks extended to six. But one side departed Ozon Arena feeling it had found something, while the other felt it had let something slip. After the match John Córdoba said Krasnodar had been superior for all 90 minutes, adding: "I think they'll go away happy to have won a point, and we won't."
Happy, yes. But the numbers do not agree with the claim of 90 minutes of superiority: Baltika's point was not a gift. The visitors had 12 shots to Krasnodar's 9, 8 goalscoring chances to 5, and 1.47 xG to 1.13. Krasnodar did dominate possession: 528 passes to 345.
How can both things be true in the same match? Easily: there were two very different halves.
First half: Krasnodar at home
The opening 15 minutes looked like a rondo drill: 104 completed passes by the hosts to Baltika's 24. By the fifth minute Krasnodar had already taken two shots from inside the box. Over the half they made 66% of all passes, completing 83%.
Yet the danger was not overwhelming. First-half shots were 7-6, goalscoring chances 4-3. Baltika conceded midfield territory, but Krasnodar got to shots much less often than their possession suggested.
Then came the 30th minute. A positional attack lasting around 25 seconds: circulation through the middle, a long pass wide, a dribble, Ilya Vakhaniya's cross. Córdoba won the duel in the box and finished from eight or nine metres: 1-0. RuStat recorded a goal-leading error against Sergey Varatynov.
Baltika could still have equalised almost immediately: four minutes later the visitors shot on target from inside the area, and Agkatsev saved.
Gil's headed chance was dangerous too.
And then there was the penalty incident involving Shiltsov... VAR should have looked at it. The slow-motion replay is below.
Second half: a different match
By the 47th minute Baltika had already hit Agkatsev's woodwork. From there the game gradually turned. The visitors' share of passes rose from 34% to 46%, and, more importantly, the ball started reaching the areas where goals are scored.
Completed passes into the penalty area in the second half: 19-3 to Baltika. Attacks from set pieces: 13-4. The visitors won 62% of aerial duels. After a shot in the 47th minute, Krasnodar did not shoot again until the 84th. Thirty-seven minutes without an attempt at goal — at home, while leading 1-0.
All three of Krasnodar's yellow cards came after the break, another sign that the hosts were increasingly stopping Baltika rather than controlling the match.
Why the game turned
The shift did not begin with the substitutions. It started immediately after half-time — the effort off the woodwork in the 47th minute is the clearest sign. And it was not about pressing: Baltika actually won the ball in the opposition half less often after the break, twice compared with eight times in the first half. What changed was where Baltika kept the ball. Before half-time, one in four Baltika passes began in the final third (38 of 154). After it, almost one in three did (60 of 191).
Krasnodar's links between the lines broke down. They made the same number of short passes, but almost half as many medium-range passes of 15 to 40 metres: 169 before the break, 91 after. Their build-up in their own third also dropped from 101 passes to 66. The ball went long more often, and Baltika were now winning those contests: 24 aerial duels out of 39 after half-time, compared with 18 of 40 in the first. Krasnodar made five clearances instead of two.
The substitutions strengthened what was already working. Pressure built steadily: completed passes into the box in the first 15 minutes after the break were 3-2; from the 61st to 75th minutes, 7-1. After Offor and Vladislav Pospelov came on around the 74th minute, it was 9-0 until the final whistle, with shots 4-1.
90+3: a centre-back in the opposition box
Corners became Baltika's main second-half weapon: five of their six attacks following corners in the match came after the break. The last one produced the goal.
Pospelov delivered, Loris Mouyokolo shot from roughly ten metres through the middle: 1-1. The 20-year-old Pospelov played 24 minutes and produced two key passes, one of them the assist. All three of his passes into the penalty area found a teammate.
Baltika had one more shot after the goal, in the final minute, wide. So Córdoba's post-match words could theoretically have sounded very different.
Who stood out
The highest RuStat index in the match belonged to Mouyokolo: 216. Krasnodar's best, Vakhaniya, had 204. But the index does not capture everything, so the ratings below come with their own reasoning.
Baltika ratings are my own, on a ten-point scale. The RuStat index is shown alongside for comparison.
Evgeny Latyshonok — 7.0 (RuStat 169, 97 min) Four saves from five shots on target and 16 completed passes from 18. Reliable, without unnecessary risk.
Sergey Varatynov — 5.5 (142, 97 min) 90% pass accuracy and all six aerial duels won, but RuStat recorded one goal-leading error and two major errors. For a defender, that outweighs the positives.
Loris Mouyokolo — 8.0 (216, 97 min) Man of the match both by index and by feel. Two shots, both on target, 0.44 xG — the highest figure on the pitch — and the 90+3 equaliser. Defensively solid too: 15 of 20 duels won, 9 of 12 aerials, 6 interceptions.
Eduardo Anderson — 6.5 (161, 97 min) Fourteen interceptions, by far the best in the team. Downsides: a yellow card and 60% passing accuracy.
Eldar Civic — 6.0 (153, 81 min) Eight passes into the penalty area — useful. But only 38% of his duels won defensively, one major error and a yellow card.
Andrey Mendel — 6.5 (161, 97 min) 12.2 km covered, 29 duels and 6 tackles — team highs. Less convincing on the ball: 61% pass accuracy is low for a holding midfielder.
Ilya Petrov — 5.5 (132, 57 min) The lowest index in the team: 36% of duels won, one major error, no shots.
Mingiyan Beveev — 7.0 (187, 97 min) The main supply line into the box: 12 passes there, 3 key passes and 16 progressive passes. The right flank also depended on him physically: 11.7 km, 67 high-intensity runs and 249 metres at sprint speed — team highs. Marked down for waste: 61% pass accuracy and 32% of duels won.
Maksim Petrov — 5.5 (169, 57 min) The index is kinder because of two shots worth 0.34 xG and the highest running tempo in the team. But winning just 3 of 14 duels is too little.
Konstantin Shiltsov — 6.5 (174, 73 min) 14 completed passes from 15, two chances created and 11 sprints — most in the team. Did not shoot on target himself.
Brian Gil — 5.5 (142, 73 min) Two goalscoring chances and 0.33 xG — but not a single shot on target. Only seven passes in 73 minutes.
Substitutes
Ivan Belikov — 6.0 (153, 39 min) 86% pass accuracy, calm central play without mistakes.
Fahd Moufi — 5.5 (157, 39 min) 45% pass accuracy and 25% of duels won — an ineffective appearance.
Vladislav Pospelov — 7.5 (186, 24 min) The best substitution of the match. In 24 minutes: two chances created, the corner assist and three completed passes into the penalty area from three attempts. An index of 186 — third best in the team despite the limited minutes.
Chinonso Offor — 5.5 (139, 24 min) One shot and five completed passes from six. Not enough for a higher mark.
Ilya Porokhov — 5.5 (156, 15 min) Seven passes; both crosses failed to find a teammate. But the lad is lively =)
More running, fewer sprints
Baltika covered 120.9 km — 5.8 km more than the hosts — and ran more in the second half than in the first. They also recorded more high-intensity runs: 580 to 538. But they made fewer sprints above 7 m/s: 86 to 111. This team wins through volume rather than explosive running.
The explosiveness did arrive late. Baltika's sprint distance doubled in the second half, from 543 to 1,092 metres. Krasnodar went from 867 to 964. The visitors won the second half with their legs as well as the ball.
Mendel covered the most ground for Baltika: 12.2 km. Maksim Petrov and Pospelov had the highest running tempo: 136 and 133 metres per minute.
Conclusion
This was not a case of a weaker side stealing a point from a stronger one. Baltika endured one half of Krasnodar's football, adjusted, and then went half an hour without allowing one of the league's leading teams a shot at goal. The 90+3 equaliser was drama, not a miracle.
But the winless run has now reached six league matches, and Baltika have 14 points after 12 rounds. Finishing remains an issue: 12 shots produced only three on target, and the only goal came from a centre-back. The next league match is at home to Akron on 1 November; before that, Zenit come in the Russian Cup on 29 October. In both games, one good second half may not be enough.
